Apple Inc. (AAPL) DCF Valuation and Intrinsic Value
Pierce Agent ran an update on October 16, 2026. This Pierce Research report is a public summary, not a recommendation.
AAPL Bull, Base & Bear Case Valuations
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Hyperscaler CAPEX pauses, aggressive supply constraints, margin compression to historical lows.
Published Pierce Agent base case. Margin of safety uses (fair value − price) / fair value.
Next-gen architecture ramps ahead of schedule, sovereign AI expansion, pricing power sustained.
Margin of Safety
Fair Value: $227.99 vs Last close $343.46
Pierce Agent's 5-year discounted cash flow model puts AAPL intrinsic value at $227.99. Versus last close the stock is overvalued by 50.6% (margin of safety -50.6%).
Valuation Sensitivity Matrix
| WACC \ Growth | 3.0% g | 3.5% g | 4.0% g |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.2% WACC | $260.49 -24.2% | $291.32 -15.2% | $331.77 -3.4% |
| 8.2% WACC | $209.11 -39.1% | $227.99 -33.6% Base Case | $251.37 -26.8% |
| 9.2% WACC | $174.33 -49.2% | $186.91 -45.6% | $201.92 -41.2% |
Technical levels below come from the same Pierce Agent run: 50-day and 200-day moving averages, RSI-14, and nearest support/resistance. Use them as context for timing, not as a substitute for the DCF.
Key Technical Levels & Momentum
Fundamental Health & Moat Assessment
Apple possesses the worlds most lucrative consumer ecosystem with an active installed base surpassing 2.2 billion devices. High-margin Services revenue provides predictable recurring cash flows while Apple Intelligence spurs an upgrade cycle.
- ✓ Apple Intelligence integration driving multi-year iPhone upgrade supercycle
- ✓ Services expansion across Apple One, payments, and digital content
- ✓ Expanding gross margins through in-house Apple Silicon across Mac and iPad
- ⚠ Regulatory scrutiny on App Store fees in the EU and US antitrust trials
- ⚠ China smartphone demand headwind and domestic competition from Huawei
- ⚠ Elongated consumer replacement cycles for hardware devices
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