Agent Valuation VerdictTechnology · Semiconductors

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) DCF Valuation and Intrinsic Value

Pierce Agent ran an update on October 16, 2026. This Pierce Research report is a public summary, not a recommendation.

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Probabilistic Valuation Scenarios

AMD Bull, Base & Bear Case Valuations

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Bear Case Floor

Hyperscaler CAPEX pauses, aggressive supply constraints, margin compression to historical lows.

$323.98
-63.2% MoS
Consensus DCF
Base Case

Published Pierce Agent base case. Margin of safety uses (fair value − price) / fair value.

$449.97
-17.5% Margin of Safety
Bull Case Scenario

Next-gen architecture ramps ahead of schedule, sovereign AI expansion, pricing power sustained.

$638.96
+17.2% MoS
Valuation Verdict

Margin of Safety

Overvalued (-17.5%)
OvervaluedFair (0%)Undervalued
Last close$528.75
DCF Fair Value$449.97
DCF ParametersLast close

Fair Value: $449.97 vs Last close $528.75

Pierce Agent's 5-year discounted cash flow model puts AMD intrinsic value at $449.97. Versus last close the stock is overvalued by 17.5% (margin of safety -17.5%).

WACC (Discount Rate)9.2%
Terminal Growth (g)3.5%
Moat ClassificationNarrow Moat
Financial HealthStrong
DCF Stress Test

Valuation Sensitivity Matrix

Base Price: $528.75
WACC \ Growth3.0% g3.5% g4.0% g
8.2% WACC
$504.48
-4.6%
$551.22
+4.2%
$609.09
+15.2%
9.2% WACC
$418.82
-20.8%
$449.97
-14.9%
Base Case
$487.12
-7.9%
10.2% WACC
$357.11
-32.5%
$379.12
-28.3%
$404.67
-23.5%
Rows: Discount Rate (WACC)Columns: Long-term Terminal Growth (g)

Technical levels below come from the same Pierce Agent run: 50-day and 200-day moving averages, RSI-14, and nearest support/resistance. Use them as context for timing, not as a substitute for the DCF.

Technical Analyst Skill

Key Technical Levels & Momentum

Golden Cross (Bullish)
Support 1 (S1)$500.00
Resistance 1 (R1)$555.00
50-Day SMA$512.40
200-Day SMA$432.80
14-Day RSI:57.6Neutral (35-65)
52W Low: $135.00Current: $528.75 (93% of range)52W High: $560.00
Pierce Agent has not published a price chart for this snapshot.
Pierce Agent Fundamental Highlights

Fundamental Health & Moat Assessment

AMD has cemented its status as the credible second-source supplier for AI training and inference accelerators through its Instinct MI300X and MI325X roadmaps. Server EPYC CPU market share gains from Intel continue to compound cash flow.

Key Bullish Catalysts
  • ✓ Instinct MI300X GPU enterprise adoption exceeding multi-billion guidance
  • ✓ Next-gen Turin EPYC server CPU share gains in enterprise data centers
  • ✓ AI PC Ryzen processor cycle driving client compute ASP uplift
Fundamental Risks & Headwinds
  • ⚠ NVIDIAs rapid annual architecture cadence (Blackwell / Rubin)
  • ⚠ Embedded segment cyclicity post-Xilinx acquisition integration
  • ⚠ Software ecosystem gaps in ROCm relative to NVIDIAs mature CUDA
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Launch Agent on AMD DCF

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Next research steps (draft only)
Technical entry levelsRe-run DCF in Pierce Agent
Valuation FAQs

AMD Valuation FAQs

Based on Pierce Agent's Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model utilizing a 9.2% WACC and 3.5% terminal growth rate, AMD's estimated fair value is $449.97 per share.