Agent Valuation VerdictConsumer Cyclical · Internet Retail

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) DCF Valuation and Intrinsic Value

Pierce Agent ran an update on October 16, 2026. This Pierce Research report is a public summary, not a recommendation.

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Probabilistic Valuation Scenarios

AMZN Bull, Base & Bear Case Valuations

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Bear Case Floor

Hyperscaler CAPEX pauses, aggressive supply constraints, margin compression to historical lows.

$162.93
-53.4% MoS
Consensus DCF
Base Case

Published Pierce Agent base case. Margin of safety uses (fair value − price) / fair value.

$226.29
-10.5% Margin of Safety
Bull Case Scenario

Next-gen architecture ramps ahead of schedule, sovereign AI expansion, pricing power sustained.

$321.33
+22.2% MoS
Valuation Verdict

Margin of Safety

Overvalued (-10.5%)
OvervaluedFair (0%)Undervalued
Last close$250.00
DCF Fair Value$226.29
DCF ParametersLast close

Fair Value: $226.29 vs Last close $250.00

Pierce Agent's 5-year discounted cash flow model puts AMZN intrinsic value at $226.29. Versus last close the stock is overvalued by 10.5% (margin of safety -10.5%).

WACC (Discount Rate)8.9%
Terminal Growth (g)3.5%
Moat ClassificationWide Moat
Financial HealthStrong
DCF Stress Test

Valuation Sensitivity Matrix

Base Price: $250.00
WACC \ Growth3.0% g3.5% g4.0% g
7.9% WACC
$254.52
+1.8%
$279.37
+11.7%
$310.58
+24.2%
8.9% WACC
$210.08
-16.0%
$226.29
-9.5%
Base Case
$245.80
-1.7%
9.9% WACC
$178.58
-28.6%
$189.85
-24.1%
$203.03
-18.8%
Rows: Discount Rate (WACC)Columns: Long-term Terminal Growth (g)

Technical levels below come from the same Pierce Agent run: 50-day and 200-day moving averages, RSI-14, and nearest support/resistance. Use them as context for timing, not as a substitute for the DCF.

Technical Analyst Skill

Key Technical Levels & Momentum

Golden Cross (Bullish)
Support 1 (S1)$236.00
Resistance 1 (R1)$268.00
50-Day SMA$248.40
200-Day SMA$225.80
14-Day RSI:55.2Neutral (35-65)
52W Low: $155.00Current: $250.00 (79% of range)52W High: $275.00
Pierce Agent has not published a price chart for this snapshot.
Pierce Agent Fundamental Highlights

Fundamental Health & Moat Assessment

Amazons dual profit engines — AWS cloud services and high-margin retail advertising — generate surging free cash flow. Fulfillment regionalization continues to reduce delivery costs and expand North American retail operating margins.

Key Bullish Catalysts
  • ✓ AWS cloud re-acceleration driven by generative AI enterprise workloads
  • ✓ Digital advertising growth outpacing broader ad market benchmarks
  • ✓ Prime Video advertising monetization and fulfillment network efficiencies
Fundamental Risks & Headwinds
  • ⚠ Consumer discretionary spending weakness in non-essential retail
  • ⚠ Cloud price competition and custom ASIC silicon investments
  • ⚠ FTC antitrust regulatory challenges regarding marketplace practices
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Launch Agent on AMZN DCF

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Next research steps (draft only)
Technical entry levelsRe-run DCF in Pierce Agent
Valuation FAQs

AMZN Valuation FAQs

Based on Pierce Agent's Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model utilizing a 8.9% WACC and 3.5% terminal growth rate, AMZN's estimated fair value is $226.29 per share.