Agent Valuation VerdictTechnology · Semiconductors

Arm Holdings plc (ARM) DCF Valuation and Intrinsic Value

Pierce Agent ran an update on October 16, 2026. This Pierce Research report is a public summary, not a recommendation.

Peer Multiples →Launch Agent ↗
Pierce Research reports: 3 of 3 remaining. No monthly plan required.
Probabilistic Valuation Scenarios

ARM Bull, Base & Bear Case Valuations

Locked scenarios stay blurred until you create an account. No monthly plan required.

Bear Case Floor

Hyperscaler CAPEX pauses, aggressive supply constraints, margin compression to historical lows.

$126.55
-80% MoS
Consensus DCF
Base Case

Published Pierce Agent base case. Margin of safety uses (fair value − price) / fair value.

$175.76
-29.6% Margin of Safety
Bull Case Scenario

Next-gen architecture ramps ahead of schedule, sovereign AI expansion, pricing power sustained.

$249.58
+8.7% MoS
Valuation Verdict

Margin of Safety

Overvalued (-29.6%)
OvervaluedFair (0%)Undervalued
Last close$227.80
DCF Fair Value$175.76
DCF ParametersLast close

Fair Value: $175.76 vs Last close $227.80

Pierce Agent's 5-year discounted cash flow model puts ARM intrinsic value at $175.76. Versus last close the stock is overvalued by 29.6% (margin of safety -29.6%).

WACC (Discount Rate)8.8%
Terminal Growth (g)4.0%
Moat ClassificationWide Moat
Financial HealthStrong
DCF Stress Test

Valuation Sensitivity Matrix

Base Price: $227.80
WACC \ Growth3.5% g4.0% g4.5% g
7.8% WACC
$200.49
-12.0%
$223.82
-1.7%
$254.22
+11.6%
8.8% WACC
$161.32
-29.2%
$175.76
-22.8%
Base Case
$193.56
-15.0%
9.8% WACC
$134.64
-40.9%
$144.34
-36.6%
$155.86
-31.6%
Rows: Discount Rate (WACC)Columns: Long-term Terminal Growth (g)

Technical levels below come from the same Pierce Agent run: 50-day and 200-day moving averages, RSI-14, and nearest support/resistance. Use them as context for timing, not as a substitute for the DCF.

Technical Analyst Skill

Key Technical Levels & Momentum

Golden Cross (Bullish)
Support 1 (S1)$212.00
Resistance 1 (R1)$248.00
50-Day SMA$235.40
200-Day SMA$205.10
14-Day RSI:52.4Neutral (35-65)
52W Low: $105.00Current: $227.80 (65% of range)52W High: $295.00
Pierce Agent has not published a price chart for this snapshot.
Pierce Agent Fundamental Highlights

Fundamental Health & Moat Assessment

Arm architecture powers 99%+ of smartphones and is expanding into hyperscaler cloud servers (AWS Graviton, Google Axion, Microsoft Cobalt) and AI edge devices. The v9 architecture carries double the royalty rate of v8.

Key Bullish Catalysts
  • ✓ Arm v9 architecture adoption expanding royalty percentage per device
  • ✓ Hyperscaler custom silicon CPU deployment accelerating data center royalties
  • ✓ Windows on Arm ecosystem penetration in consumer PC laptops
Fundamental Risks & Headwinds
  • ⚠ RISC-V open-source architectural alternative gaining traction among Chinese licensees
  • ⚠ Customer concentration with SoftBank controlling 90% of outstanding equity
  • ⚠ Legal disputes with Qualcomm over Nuvia architectural license rights
Pierce Agent draft

Launch Agent on ARM DCF

No monthly plan required. Claim 25,000 credits and load a draft dcf-valuation prompt for ARM.

Launch Agent
Next research steps (draft only)
Technical entry levelsRe-run DCF in Pierce Agent
Valuation FAQs

ARM Valuation FAQs

Based on Pierce Agent's Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model utilizing a 8.8% WACC and 4% terminal growth rate, ARM's estimated fair value is $175.76 per share.