CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) DCF Valuation and Intrinsic Value
Pierce Agent ran an update on October 16, 2026. This Pierce Research report is a public summary, not a recommendation.
CRWD Bull, Base & Bear Case Valuations
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Hyperscaler CAPEX pauses, aggressive supply constraints, margin compression to historical lows.
Published Pierce Agent base case. Margin of safety uses (fair value − price) / fair value.
Next-gen architecture ramps ahead of schedule, sovereign AI expansion, pricing power sustained.
Margin of Safety
Fair Value: $244.97 vs Last close $227.39
Pierce Agent's 5-year discounted cash flow model puts CRWD intrinsic value at $244.97. Versus last close the stock is undervalued by 7.2% (margin of safety +7.2%).
Valuation Sensitivity Matrix
| WACC \ Growth | 3.5% g | 4.0% g | 4.5% g |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% WACC | $273.82 +20.4% | $299.05 +31.5% | $330.58 +45.4% |
| 9.5% WACC | $228.39 +0.4% | $244.97 +7.7% Base Case | $264.87 +16.5% |
| 10.5% WACC | $196.01 -13.8% | $207.61 -8.7% | $221.13 -2.8% |
Technical levels below come from the same Pierce Agent run: 50-day and 200-day moving averages, RSI-14, and nearest support/resistance. Use them as context for timing, not as a substitute for the DCF.
Key Technical Levels & Momentum
Fundamental Health & Moat Assessment
CrowdStrike Falcon is the institutional gold standard in endpoint detection and AI-native cloud security. Multi-module adoption and high customer retention cement high operating margins.
- ✓ Customer commitment package expansions consolidating enterprise security point tools
- ✓ Cloud security and Next-Gen SIEM (LogScale) module adoption
- ✓ Federal government and sovereign security certification expansions
- ⚠ Sales cycle lengthening following July 2024 global channel outage incident
- ⚠ Intense vendor competition from Microsoft Defender and Palo Alto Networks
- ⚠ Premium forward multiple leaving little room for execution shortfall
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