Agent Valuation VerdictCommunication Services · Entertainment

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) DCF Valuation and Intrinsic Value

Pierce Agent ran an update on October 16, 2026. This Pierce Research report is a public summary, not a recommendation.

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Probabilistic Valuation Scenarios

DIS Bull, Base & Bear Case Valuations

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Bear Case Floor

Hyperscaler CAPEX pauses, aggressive supply constraints, margin compression to historical lows.

$67.33
-64.3% MoS
Consensus DCF
Base Case

Published Pierce Agent base case. Margin of safety uses (fair value − price) / fair value.

$93.51
-18.3% Margin of Safety
Bull Case Scenario

Next-gen architecture ramps ahead of schedule, sovereign AI expansion, pricing power sustained.

$132.78
+16.7% MoS
Valuation Verdict

Margin of Safety

Overvalued (-18.3%)
OvervaluedFair (0%)Undervalued
Last close$110.59
DCF Fair Value$93.51
DCF ParametersLast close

Fair Value: $93.51 vs Last close $110.59

Pierce Agent's 5-year discounted cash flow model puts DIS intrinsic value at $93.51. Versus last close the stock is overvalued by 18.3% (margin of safety -18.3%).

WACC (Discount Rate)8.8%
Terminal Growth (g)2.5%
Moat ClassificationWide Moat
Financial HealthStrong
DCF Stress Test

Valuation Sensitivity Matrix

Base Price: $110.59
WACC \ Growth2.0% g2.5% g3.0% g
7.8% WACC
$105.56
-4.5%
$115.24
+4.2%
$126.92
+14.8%
8.8% WACC
$86.82
-21.5%
$93.51
-15.4%
Base Case
$101.35
-8.4%
9.8% WACC
$72.89
-34.1%
$77.74
-29.7%
$83.31
-24.7%
Rows: Discount Rate (WACC)Columns: Long-term Terminal Growth (g)

Technical levels below come from the same Pierce Agent run: 50-day and 200-day moving averages, RSI-14, and nearest support/resistance. Use them as context for timing, not as a substitute for the DCF.

Technical Analyst Skill

Key Technical Levels & Momentum

Golden Cross (Bullish)
Support 1 (S1)$102.00
Resistance 1 (R1)$118.00
50-Day SMA$106.20
200-Day SMA$101.50
14-Day RSI:56.8Neutral (35-65)
52W Low: $83.91Current: $110.59 (67% of range)52W High: $123.74
Pierce Agent has not published a price chart for this snapshot.
Pierce Agent Fundamental Highlights

Fundamental Health & Moat Assessment

Disney owns unmatched intellectual property portfolios spanning Marvel, Pixar, Star Wars, and Disney Animation. Streaming profitability turnaround combined with Parks & Experiences pricing power drives durable cash flow.

Key Bullish Catalysts
  • ✓ Direct-to-consumer streaming operating profit margin expansion
  • ✓ Epic Games partnership integrating Disney IP into interactive gaming platforms
  • ✓ $60B 10-year capital investment program expanding Disney theme parks and cruise ships
Fundamental Risks & Headwinds
  • ⚠ Linear television pay-TV cord cutting accelerating cable network EBITDA declines
  • ⚠ Consumer discretionary spending sensitivity affecting theme park attendance
  • ⚠ Box office cyclicity for major studio theatrical releases
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Launch Agent on DIS DCF

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Next research steps (draft only)
Technical entry levelsRe-run DCF in Pierce Agent
Valuation FAQs

DIS Valuation FAQs

Based on Pierce Agent's Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model utilizing a 8.8% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth rate, DIS's estimated fair value is $93.51 per share.