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Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) DCF Valuation and Intrinsic Value

Pierce Agent ran an update on October 16, 2026. This Pierce Research report is a public summary, not a recommendation.

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Probabilistic Valuation Scenarios

GOOGL Bull, Base & Bear Case Valuations

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Bear Case Floor

Hyperscaler CAPEX pauses, aggressive supply constraints, margin compression to historical lows.

$177.40
-92% MoS
Consensus DCF
Base Case

Published Pierce Agent base case. Margin of safety uses (fair value − price) / fair value.

$246.39
-38.2% Margin of Safety
Bull Case Scenario

Next-gen architecture ramps ahead of schedule, sovereign AI expansion, pricing power sustained.

$349.87
+2.7% MoS
Valuation Verdict

Margin of Safety

Overvalued (-38.2%)
OvervaluedFair (0%)Undervalued
Last close$340.59
DCF Fair Value$246.39
DCF ParametersLast close

Fair Value: $246.39 vs Last close $340.59

Pierce Agent's 5-year discounted cash flow model puts GOOGL intrinsic value at $246.39. Versus last close the stock is overvalued by 38.2% (margin of safety -38.2%).

WACC (Discount Rate)8.8%
Terminal Growth (g)3.5%
Moat ClassificationWide Moat
Financial HealthPristine
DCF Stress Test

Valuation Sensitivity Matrix

Base Price: $340.59
WACC \ Growth3.0% g3.5% g4.0% g
7.8% WACC
$276.81
-18.7%
$303.84
-10.8%
$337.98
-0.8%
8.8% WACC
$228.90
-32.8%
$246.39
-27.7%
Base Case
$267.52
-21.5%
9.8% WACC
$195.12
-42.7%
$207.22
-39.2%
$221.41
-35.0%
Rows: Discount Rate (WACC)Columns: Long-term Terminal Growth (g)

Technical levels below come from the same Pierce Agent run: 50-day and 200-day moving averages, RSI-14, and nearest support/resistance. Use them as context for timing, not as a substitute for the DCF.

Technical Analyst Skill

Key Technical Levels & Momentum

Golden Cross (Bullish)
Support 1 (S1)$322.00
Resistance 1 (R1)$358.00
50-Day SMA$332.60
200-Day SMA$298.20
14-Day RSI:55.4Neutral (35-65)
52W Low: $155.00Current: $340.59 (91% of range)52W High: $360.00
Pierce Agent has not published a price chart for this snapshot.
Pierce Agent Fundamental Highlights

Fundamental Health & Moat Assessment

Alphabet commands global search dominance with unmatched reach and superior AI research capabilities through Google DeepMind. YouTube monetization and Google Cloud profitability reinforce a fortress balance sheet.

Key Bullish Catalysts
  • ✓ Google Cloud operating margin expansion and enterprise AI contracts
  • ✓ YouTube Shorts and connected TV ad revenue acceleration
  • ✓ Gemini integration enhancing search ad click-through rates
Fundamental Risks & Headwinds
  • ⚠ DOJ antitrust litigation remedies regarding default search distribution agreements
  • ⚠ AI generative search queries eroding traditional text search ad margins
  • ⚠ Capital intensity of AI compute hardware infrastructure
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Valuation FAQs

GOOGL Valuation FAQs

Based on Pierce Agent's Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model utilizing a 8.8% WACC and 3.5% terminal growth rate, GOOGL's estimated fair value is $246.39 per share.