Agent Valuation VerdictFinancial Services · Capital Markets

Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) DCF Valuation and Intrinsic Value

Pierce Agent ran an update on October 16, 2026. This Pierce Research report is a public summary, not a recommendation.

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Probabilistic Valuation Scenarios

HOOD Bull, Base & Bear Case Valuations

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Bear Case Floor

Hyperscaler CAPEX pauses, aggressive supply constraints, margin compression to historical lows.

$74.35
-33% MoS
Consensus DCF
Base Case

Published Pierce Agent base case. Margin of safety uses (fair value − price) / fair value.

$103.27
+4.3% Margin of Safety
Bull Case Scenario

Next-gen architecture ramps ahead of schedule, sovereign AI expansion, pricing power sustained.

$146.64
+32.6% MoS
Valuation Verdict

Margin of Safety

Fair Value (+4.3%)
OvervaluedFair (0%)Undervalued
Last close$98.87
DCF Fair Value$103.27
DCF ParametersLast close

Fair Value: $103.27 vs Last close $98.87

Pierce Agent's 5-year discounted cash flow model puts HOOD intrinsic value at $103.27. Versus last close the stock is undervalued by 4.3% (margin of safety +4.3%).

WACC (Discount Rate)11.0%
Terminal Growth (g)3.5%
Moat ClassificationNarrow Moat
Financial HealthStrong
DCF Stress Test

Valuation Sensitivity Matrix

Base Price: $98.87
WACC \ Growth3.0% g3.5% g4.0% g
10.0% WACC
$112.44
+13.7%
$119.20
+20.6%
$127.07
+28.5%
11.0% WACC
$98.33
-0.5%
$103.27
+4.5%
Base Case
$108.91
+10.2%
12.0% WACC
$87.38
-11.6%
$91.12
-7.8%
$95.33
-3.6%
Rows: Discount Rate (WACC)Columns: Long-term Terminal Growth (g)

Technical levels below come from the same Pierce Agent run: 50-day and 200-day moving averages, RSI-14, and nearest support/resistance. Use them as context for timing, not as a substitute for the DCF.

Technical Analyst Skill

Key Technical Levels & Momentum

Golden Cross (Bullish)
Support 1 (S1)$90.00
Resistance 1 (R1)$112.00
50-Day SMA$102.50
200-Day SMA$75.40
14-Day RSI:53.2Neutral (35-65)
52W Low: $16.50Current: $98.87 (74% of range)52W High: $128.00
Pierce Agent has not published a price chart for this snapshot.
Pierce Agent Fundamental Highlights

Fundamental Health & Moat Assessment

Robinhood is rapidly maturing into an all-in-one financial ecosystem for the next generation of retail wealth. Gold subscription adoption, 3% retirement IRA match inflows, and high net interest revenues deliver solid margins.

Key Bullish Catalysts
  • ✓ Gold tier subscription growth and high deposit retention
  • ✓ Robinhood Gold credit card rollout driving consumer engagement
  • ✓ International expansion across UK and European crypto markets
Fundamental Risks & Headwinds
  • ⚠ Interest rate cuts reducing net interest revenue on uninvested cash
  • ⚠ Payment for order flow (PFOF) regulatory review from the SEC
  • ⚠ Retail trading volume sensitivity to market volatility
Pierce Agent draft

Launch Agent on HOOD DCF

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Next research steps (draft only)
Technical entry levelsRe-run DCF in Pierce Agent
Valuation FAQs

HOOD Valuation FAQs

Based on Pierce Agent's Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model utilizing a 11% WACC and 3.5% terminal growth rate, HOOD's estimated fair value is $103.27 per share.