Agent Valuation VerdictReal Estate · REIT—Retail

Realty Income Corporation (O) DCF Valuation and Intrinsic Value

Pierce Agent ran an update on October 16, 2026. This Pierce Research report is a public summary, not a recommendation.

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Probabilistic Valuation Scenarios

O Bull, Base & Bear Case Valuations

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Bear Case Floor

Hyperscaler CAPEX pauses, aggressive supply constraints, margin compression to historical lows.

$51.16
-9.6% MoS
Consensus DCF
Base Case

Published Pierce Agent base case. Margin of safety uses (fair value − price) / fair value.

$71.06
+21.1% Margin of Safety
Bull Case Scenario

Next-gen architecture ramps ahead of schedule, sovereign AI expansion, pricing power sustained.

$100.91
+44.4% MoS
Valuation Verdict

Margin of Safety

Undervalued (+21.1%)
OvervaluedFair (0%)Undervalued
Last close$56.08
DCF Fair Value$71.06
DCF ParametersLast close

Fair Value: $71.06 vs Last close $56.08

Pierce Agent's 5-year discounted cash flow model puts O intrinsic value at $71.06. Versus last close the stock is undervalued by 21.1% (margin of safety +21.1%).

WACC (Discount Rate)7.5%
Terminal Growth (g)2.5%
Moat ClassificationWide Moat
Financial HealthStrong
DCF Stress Test

Valuation Sensitivity Matrix

Base Price: $56.08
WACC \ Growth2.0% g2.5% g3.0% g
6.5% WACC
$83.88
+49.6%
$95.57
+70.4%
$110.60
+97.2%
7.5% WACC
$63.70
+13.6%
$71.06
+26.7%
Base Case
$80.07
+42.8%
8.5% WACC
$49.72
-11.3%
$54.73
-2.4%
$60.65
+8.1%
Rows: Discount Rate (WACC)Columns: Long-term Terminal Growth (g)

Technical levels below come from the same Pierce Agent run: 50-day and 200-day moving averages, RSI-14, and nearest support/resistance. Use them as context for timing, not as a substitute for the DCF.

Technical Analyst Skill

Key Technical Levels & Momentum

Golden Cross (Bullish)
Support 1 (S1)$52.50
Resistance 1 (R1)$60.00
50-Day SMA$56.80
200-Day SMA$54.80
14-Day RSI:51.8Neutral (35-65)
52W Low: $48.00Current: $56.08 (44% of range)52W High: $66.50
Pierce Agent has not published a price chart for this snapshot.
Pierce Agent Fundamental Highlights

Fundamental Health & Moat Assessment

Known as The Monthly Dividend Company, Realty Income owns a premier portfolio of over 15,400 commercial properties under long-term triple-net leases. 98%+ occupancy and investment-grade tenants protect monthly distributions.

Key Bullish Catalysts
  • ✓ Interest rate easing cycle reducing borrowing costs and expanding investment spreads
  • ✓ European commercial real estate portfolio acquisition expansion
  • ✓ Data center and gaming facility strategic joint ventures (e.g. Bellagio, Digital Realty)
Fundamental Risks & Headwinds
  • ⚠ Commercial tenant retail bankruptcies in non-essential retail categories
  • ⚠ Refinancing maturing debt at higher prevailing benchmark interest rates
  • ⚠ Public equity issuance dilution to fund portfolio property acquisitions
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Launch Agent on O DCF

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Launch Agent
Next research steps (draft only)
Technical entry levelsRe-run DCF in Pierce Agent
Valuation FAQs

O Valuation FAQs

Based on Pierce Agent's Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model utilizing a 7.5% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth rate, O's estimated fair value is $71.06 per share.