Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) DCF Valuation and Intrinsic Value
Pierce Agent ran an update on October 16, 2026. This Pierce Research report is a public summary, not a recommendation.
SCHD Bull, Base & Bear Case Valuations
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Hyperscaler CAPEX pauses, aggressive supply constraints, margin compression to historical lows.
Published Pierce Agent base case. Margin of safety uses (fair value − price) / fair value.
Next-gen architecture ramps ahead of schedule, sovereign AI expansion, pricing power sustained.
Margin of Safety
Fair Value: $30.60 vs Last close $34.35
Pierce Agent's 5-year discounted cash flow model puts SCHD intrinsic value at $30.60. Versus last close the stock is overvalued by 12.3% (margin of safety -12.3%).
Valuation Sensitivity Matrix
| WACC \ Growth | 2.5% g | 3.0% g | 3.5% g |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% WACC | $34.81 +1.3% | $38.74 +12.8% | $43.87 +27.7% |
| 7.8% WACC | $28.17 -18.0% | $30.60 -10.9% Base Case | $33.60 -2.2% |
| 8.8% WACC | $23.64 -31.2% | $25.27 -26.4% | $27.21 -20.8% |
Technical levels below come from the same Pierce Agent run: 50-day and 200-day moving averages, RSI-14, and nearest support/resistance. Use them as context for timing, not as a substitute for the DCF.
Key Technical Levels & Momentum
Fundamental Health & Moat Assessment
SCHD tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index, screening for 10 consecutive years of dividend payments, high return on equity, and low debt. It provides defensive cash flow yield with low expense ratio (0.06%).
- ✓ Quality dividend compounder outperformance during market volatility
- ✓ 10-year dividend compound annual growth rate exceeding 10%
- ✓ Defensive value equity re-allocation away from high-beta tech concentration
- ⚠ Higher-for-longer interest rates making money-market yields competitive with dividend yields
- ⚠ Absence of mega-cap growth tech reducing participation in bull market momentum
- ⚠ Sector concentration in Financials, Industrials, and Healthcare
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