Agent Valuation VerdictFinancial Services · Credit Services

SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) DCF Valuation and Intrinsic Value

Pierce Agent ran an update on October 16, 2026. This Pierce Research report is a public summary, not a recommendation.

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Probabilistic Valuation Scenarios

SOFI Bull, Base & Bear Case Valuations

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Bear Case Floor

Hyperscaler CAPEX pauses, aggressive supply constraints, margin compression to historical lows.

$17.92
+18.8% MoS
Consensus DCF
Base Case

Published Pierce Agent base case. Margin of safety uses (fair value − price) / fair value.

$24.89
+41.5% Margin of Safety
Bull Case Scenario

Next-gen architecture ramps ahead of schedule, sovereign AI expansion, pricing power sustained.

$35.34
+58.8% MoS
Valuation Verdict

Margin of Safety

Undervalued (+41.5%)
OvervaluedFair (0%)Undervalued
Last close$14.55
DCF Fair Value$24.89
DCF ParametersLast close

Fair Value: $24.89 vs Last close $14.55

Pierce Agent's 5-year discounted cash flow model puts SOFI intrinsic value at $24.89. Versus last close the stock is undervalued by 41.5% (margin of safety +41.5%).

WACC (Discount Rate)11.0%
Terminal Growth (g)3.5%
Moat ClassificationNarrow Moat
Financial HealthStrong
DCF Stress Test

Valuation Sensitivity Matrix

Base Price: $14.55
WACC \ Growth3.0% g3.5% g4.0% g
10.0% WACC
$27.10
+86.3%
$28.73
+97.5%
$30.63
+110.5%
11.0% WACC
$23.69
+62.8%
$24.89
+71.1%
Base Case
$26.25
+80.4%
12.0% WACC
$21.05
+44.7%
$21.95
+50.9%
$22.97
+57.9%
Rows: Discount Rate (WACC)Columns: Long-term Terminal Growth (g)

Technical levels below come from the same Pierce Agent run: 50-day and 200-day moving averages, RSI-14, and nearest support/resistance. Use them as context for timing, not as a substitute for the DCF.

Technical Analyst Skill

Key Technical Levels & Momentum

Golden Cross (Bullish)
Support 1 (S1)$13.20
Resistance 1 (R1)$16.50
50-Day SMA$15.10
200-Day SMA$12.80
14-Day RSI:51.4Neutral (35-65)
52W Low: $6.41Current: $14.55 (60% of range)52W High: $20.00
Pierce Agent has not published a price chart for this snapshot.
Pierce Agent Fundamental Highlights

Fundamental Health & Moat Assessment

SoFi has successfully transitioned from a student loan refi shop into a diversified digital bank with national bank charter deposit advantages. High net interest margins and growing tech platform fee revenue underpin GAAP profitability.

Key Bullish Catalysts
  • ✓ Direct deposit member growth reducing deposit funding costs
  • ✓ Tech platform Galileo/Technisys B2B financial infrastructure growth
  • ✓ Loan origination volume acceleration as interest rates stabilize
Fundamental Risks & Headwinds
  • ⚠ Credit loss provisions during macro economic downturns
  • ⚠ Interest rate volatility impacting personal loan fair-value marks
  • ⚠ Regulatory capital requirement changes for non-traditional banks
Pierce Agent draft

Launch Agent on SOFI DCF

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Launch Agent
Next research steps (draft only)
Technical entry levelsRe-run DCF in Pierce Agent
Valuation FAQs

SOFI Valuation FAQs

Based on Pierce Agent's Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model utilizing a 11% WACC and 3.5% terminal growth rate, SOFI's estimated fair value is $24.89 per share.