Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) DCF Valuation and Intrinsic Value
Pierce Agent ran an update on September 1, 2026. This Pierce Research report is a public summary, not a recommendation.
TSLA Bull, Base & Bear Case Valuations
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Hyperscaler CAPEX pauses, aggressive supply constraints, margin compression to historical lows.
Published Pierce Agent base case. Margin of safety uses (fair value − price) / fair value.
Next-gen architecture ramps ahead of schedule, sovereign AI expansion, pricing power sustained.
Margin of Safety
Fair Value: $205.00 vs Last close $220.00
Pierce Agent's 5-year discounted cash flow model puts TSLA intrinsic value at $205.00. Versus last close the stock is overvalued by 7.3% (margin of safety -7.3%).
Valuation Sensitivity Matrix
| WACC \ Growth | 3.0% g | 3.5% g | 4.0% g |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% WACC | $235.00 +6.8% | $252.00 +14.5% | $272.00 +23.6% |
| 10.5% WACC | $192.00 -12.7% | $205.00 -6.8% Base Case | $219.00 -0.5% |
| 11.5% WACC | $160.00 -27.3% | $170.00 -22.7% | $180.00 -18.2% |
Technical levels below come from the same Pierce Agent run: 50-day and 200-day moving averages, RSI-14, and nearest support/resistance. Use them as context for timing, not as a substitute for the DCF.
Key Technical Levels & Momentum
Fundamental Health & Moat Assessment
Tesla auto automotive gross margins face near-term EV price competition, but energy storage (Megapack) deployments and FSD v12 autonomous driving options represent high-margin non-linear growth levers.
- ✓ Robotaxi cybercab unveiling
- ✓ Energy storage revenue doubling
- ✓ Sub-$30k next-gen vehicle launch
- ⚠ EV price deflation and margin erosion
- ⚠ Full self driving regulatory headwinds
- ⚠ Geopolitical exposure in China
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