Agent Valuation VerdictConsumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) DCF Valuation and Intrinsic Value

Pierce Agent ran an update on October 16, 2026. This Pierce Research report is a public summary, not a recommendation.

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Probabilistic Valuation Scenarios

TSLA Bull, Base & Bear Case Valuations

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Bear Case Floor

Hyperscaler CAPEX pauses, aggressive supply constraints, margin compression to historical lows.

$165.96
-113.7% MoS
Consensus DCF
Base Case

Published Pierce Agent base case. Margin of safety uses (fair value − price) / fair value.

$230.50
-53.9% Margin of Safety
Bull Case Scenario

Next-gen architecture ramps ahead of schedule, sovereign AI expansion, pricing power sustained.

$327.31
-8.4% MoS
Valuation Verdict

Margin of Safety

Overvalued (-53.9%)
OvervaluedFair (0%)Undervalued
Last close$354.72
DCF Fair Value$230.50
DCF ParametersLast close

Fair Value: $230.50 vs Last close $354.72

Pierce Agent's 5-year discounted cash flow model puts TSLA intrinsic value at $230.50. Versus last close the stock is overvalued by 53.9% (margin of safety -53.9%).

WACC (Discount Rate)8.8%
Terminal Growth (g)3.5%
Moat ClassificationNarrow Moat
Financial HealthStrong
DCF Stress Test

Valuation Sensitivity Matrix

Base Price: $354.72
WACC \ Growth3.0% g3.5% g4.0% g
7.8% WACC
$259.32
-26.9%
$284.98
-19.7%
$317.39
-10.5%
8.8% WACC
$213.90
-39.7%
$230.50
-35.0%
Base Case
$250.57
-29.4%
9.8% WACC
$181.90
-48.7%
$193.39
-45.5%
$206.86
-41.7%
Rows: Discount Rate (WACC)Columns: Long-term Terminal Growth (g)

Technical levels below come from the same Pierce Agent run: 50-day and 200-day moving averages, RSI-14, and nearest support/resistance. Use them as context for timing, not as a substitute for the DCF.

Technical Analyst Skill

Key Technical Levels & Momentum

Golden Cross (Bullish)
Support 1 (S1)$332.00
Resistance 1 (R1)$378.00
50-Day SMA$345.20
200-Day SMA$295.50
14-Day RSI:56.8Neutral (35-65)
52W Low: $138.80Current: $354.72 (83% of range)52W High: $399.00
Pierce Agent has not published a price chart for this snapshot.
Pierce Agent Fundamental Highlights

Fundamental Health & Moat Assessment

Tesla auto automotive gross margins face near-term EV price competition, but energy storage (Megapack) deployments and FSD v12 autonomous driving options represent high-margin non-linear growth levers.

Key Bullish Catalysts
  • ✓ Robotaxi cybercab unveiling and commercial deployment
  • ✓ Energy storage revenue doubling with Lathrop Megafactory expansion
  • ✓ Sub-$30k next-gen vehicle platform introduction
Fundamental Risks & Headwinds
  • ⚠ EV price deflation and automotive gross margin erosion
  • ⚠ Full self driving autonomous software regulatory hurdles
  • ⚠ Geopolitical exposure in China and supply chain disruption
Pierce Agent draft

Launch Agent on TSLA DCF

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Next research steps (draft only)
Technical entry levelsRe-run DCF in Pierce Agent
Valuation FAQs

TSLA Valuation FAQs

Based on Pierce Agent's Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model utilizing a 8.8% WACC and 3.5% terminal growth rate, TSLA's estimated fair value is $230.50 per share.